Hurricane Rafael Tracker: Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify, with the storm expected to reach near-major hurricane strength as it approaches western Cuba on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Currently located about 160 miles south-southeast of Havana, Rafael is moving northwest and is expected to make landfall in Cuba today, potentially hitting the Isle of Youth first.

Rafael’s Path and Strength

As of this morning, Rafael is moving at sustained winds of around 100 mph and is forecast to strengthen further. While the storm may weaken slightly over Cuba, it is expected to reenter the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane later tonight. The NHC predicts heavy rain across the Western Caribbean through Thursday, particularly in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, with rainfall expected to reach 4-7 inches, and isolated areas seeing up to 10 inches.

Florida Keys and Gulf Coast Impact

Tropical storm conditions are anticipated in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower Florida Keys by Wednesday afternoon. The Keys could receive up to 3 inches of rain and may experience isolated tornadoes. Although it is still too early to know the exact path Rafael will take along the Gulf Coast, initial forecasts suggest it could potentially make landfall between Texas and the Florida Panhandle by the weekend, with the central Louisiana coast being a probable target.

Fortunately, drier air and stronger wind conditions in the Gulf are expected to weaken Rafael before it reaches the U.S. mainland. As a result, it is unlikely that Rafael will hit the Gulf Coast as a major hurricane, though the storm may still bring significant rain and gusty winds.

For live updates on Hurricane Rafael’s progress, including maps, spaghetti models, and more, keep an eye on the latest forecasts and storm trackers.

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