US Inflation Data: December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) were down slightly by 0.09% early Wednesday, as investors maintained caution before a pivotal U.S. consumer inflation report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.
On Tuesday, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the red. The S&P 500 fell as Mosaic (MOS) dropped over 7%, driven by weak Q3 earnings. Homebuilder stocks like Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) also struggled, each losing more than 3%, after a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. Meanwhile, Novavax (NVAX) slid 6% after revising its revenue outlook downward.
Tyson Foods (TSN) gained over 6%, buoyed by better-than-expected financial results, while Honeywell (HON) rose 3% following news that activist investor Elliott Investment Management acquired a $5 billion stake, advocating for a company breakup.
Dan Wantrobski of Janney Montgomery Scott noted the potential for market profit-taking as equities enter the new year. “Upward momentum is robust, but stocks remain overbought across multiple timeframes,” Wantrobski explained.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin expressed optimism, saying the economy is in a favorable position. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari added that if inflation surprises upward, the Fed might pause its expected rate cuts in December, emphasizing a data-driven approach to future monetary policy.
In other developments, the Federal Reserve’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey indicated a decline in demand for business and consumer loans. Currently, U.S. rate futures reflect a 65.8% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month.
All Eyes on CPI Data
Market participants are eagerly awaiting the U.S. consumer inflation report due today. Economists forecast a 0.2% monthly increase in October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 2.6% annual rise. The Core CPI is anticipated to maintain a steady 3.3% year-on-year growth.
According to 22V Research, 55% of surveyed investors predict a neutral market response to the data, while 31% foresee a potential sell-off.
Global Markets Update
In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 futures edged up 0.13%. Investors remain wary of U.S. inflation data and European economic challenges, including uncertainties about Germany’s early federal election and China’s slowing economy. Siemens Energy surged 14% after revising financial targets, while Just Eat Takeaway.com soared over 21% following the sale of Grubhub.
In Asia, markets were mixed. China’s Shanghai Composite closed 0.51% higher, driven by telecom and media stock gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.66%, impacted by currency pressures and concerns about rising wholesale inflation.
Pre-Market Stock Movers
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) jumped 26% in pre-market trading after surpassing Q3 expectations. Spotify (SPOT) gained 6% following an optimistic Q4 forecast, and CAVA Group (CAVA) rose 16% after lifting its annual sales outlook.
The spotlight remains on today’s U.S. inflation data and several speeches from Fed officials. Investors are bracing for any surprises that could sway markets and reshape the outlook for interest rates.
